Want to know if your Xiaohongshu content has the potential to go viral? In the fast-paced world of content marketing, timely prediction and strategy adjustment are crucial. Here’s how experienced marketers use specific metrics and formulas to predict a post’s viral potential within just 12 hours of publication. 

Understanding Viral Content on Xiaohongshu 

Viral posts are typically evaluated based on distribution performance such as likes, views, and comments. While Xiaohongshu doesn’t set official standards, industry consensus provides clear guidelines. 

Key Formulas and Metrics for Predicting Viral Content 

 

Formula 1: Likes

– 1000+ likes within 12 hours of posting, or 

– Like-to-view ratio ≥ 10% within 12 hours, or 

– Total likes ≥ 5000 

 

Formula 2: Views

– 10,000+ views within 12 hours of posting, or 

– Cumulative like-to-view ratio ≥ 5%, or 

– Total views ≥ 100,000 

 

Formula 3: Comments 

– 100+ comments within 2 hours of posting, or 

– Total comments ≥ 500 

Action Strategy After Identifying Potential Viral Content 

Once content shows signs of going viral, consider immediate ad placement to rapidly increase influence and exposure. Conversely, for underperforming content, make early adjustments and optimizations to ensure the best results by the end of your campaign. By applying these strategies and metrics, you can better predict and capitalize on viral content opportunities on Xiaohongshu, maximizing your marketing efforts and engagement with your target audience. 

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